Housing Needs Assessment

• Commerce City is growing rapidly. The population grew from just over 16,000 in 1980 to nearly 67,500 in 2023 and is projected to exceed 100,000 by 2040, outpacing the statewide growth. Rapid population growth requires proactive and inclusive housing strategies to keep pace and avoid affordability challenges and overcrowding.
  
  
• Commerce City is a young, family-centered community that is also gradually aging. A median age of 34 drives demand for starter homes, family-sized units, and rentals, though gradual decline in household size signals rising demand for smaller, flexible housing options. A slowly aging population (8% seniors, many with disabilities) underscores the need for accessible, age-friendly housing.
  
  
• Commerce City has a greater racial and ethnic diversity than the region. This highlights the need for culturally responsive strategies, including multigenerational housing, larger family units, and expanded homeownership access to preserve diversity.

• High homeownership signals stability, but also a gap in the rental market. Nearly 80% of households own their homes, which supports wealth-building, but the high rate suggests a potential rental shortage that could limit mobility and affordability for new and lower-income residents.

• Housing must remain attainable for working families. Only about one-in-four adults hold a bachelor's degree—roughly half the statewide rate—making affordability essential for moderate-income and blue-collar workers.

• Commerce City wealth is rising with in-migration. Median household income reached $107,000 in 2023, driven by affluent in-migration, enabling typical households to afford $2,700 in monthly housing costs.

• There is a wealth gap between renters and owners. Income gains concentrated among homeowners ($126,000 median) while renter incomes stagnated ($55,000 median), creating a widening disparity that suggests many renters have been left behind.

• A high poverty rate limits resident access to housing options. With 9.6% of residents living below the poverty line, roughly one-in-ten face significant housing challenges and limited mortgage credit access.

• Commerce City’s blue-collar base will shift toward professional services. The economy remains anchored in blue-collar sectors, with Transportation/Warehousing/Utilities employing over 20% of the city's 30,000 workers and Construction/Manufacturing each at 12%, underscoring workforce housing needs. Regional forecasts predict a labor market shift toward higher-skill, service-oriented sectors like Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services.

• Affordable housing is needed to address employment disruptions. The May 2025 unemployment rate of 4.8% exceeded the state average and rose from prior years, highlighting the need for affordable rentals to support households through income disruptions.

• There is growing business volatility. Business openings continue to exceed closures, though rising shutdowns between 2019 and 2024 signal shifting consumer bases and potential displacement pressures.

• The city functions as a commuter hub. The city's dual role as employment hub and bedroom community is evident in 2022 commuting patterns: 33,000 workers commuted in, 29,000 residents commuted out, and only 3,000 both lived and worked locally.

• Economic growth can signal redevelopment and displacement pressures. Inflation-adjusted sales tax revenues have surged since 2016, indicating economic strength but also potentially reflecting gentrification and displacement amid demographic changes and neighborhood redevelopment.

• A construction surge produced limited housing variety. Housing production lagged population growth from 2010 to 2016, contributing to overcrowding and affordability pressures, but construction surged after 2017, expanding inventory to 22,808 units by 2023. Nearly 80% of housing consists of single-family detached homes—far above the regional average—limiting options for renters, first-time buyers, seniors, and lower-income residents who need more affordable, flexible choices like ADUs, townhomes, and multifamily units.

• Core Commerce City could help meet diverse housing needs. The most diverse housing mix is concentrated along the north-south corridor between I-76 and Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge, positioning these core neighborhoods to better meet evolving household needs.

• Commerce City benefits from new home ownership. The housing stock is relatively new, with the median owner-occupied home built in 2005, offering advantages in energy efficiency and maintenance costs.

• Current rental housing provides needed affordability but is aging. Rental units tend to be older, with 30% predating 1970 compared to 18% of owner units, providing naturally occurring affordable housing that requires continued investment to maintain safe, livable conditions.

• Vacancy rates have been fluctuating. Vacancy rates fell from 6% in 2010 to below 1% by 2016 as construction lagged, then rebounded to 6.5% by 2023 with new unit deliveries.

• Rental housing inventory is constrained.  Only one-third of vacant homes were available for sale or rent, with the rest sold/rented but unoccupied, seasonal, foreclosed, or under repair, suggesting recent vacancy increases may reflect affordability pressures, household consolidation, or delayed mobility as costs outpace income growth.

• The homeownership gap in Commerce City is significant. Even with median home prices falling from a 2022 peak of nearly $625,000 to about $506,000, homeownership remains out of reach for most households, now requiring roughly $170,000 in income—far above the city's median.

• Home ownership has become an exclusive market. Only 3% of homes sold in 2024-2025 were affordable to households earning $100,000 (the city's median), compared to over 80% affordable to those earning $200,000 or above, indicating a significant shift in who can purchase locally.

• A lack of housing diversity decreases home ownership options. Single-family detached homes sell for more than $100,000 above attached options like townhomes and condos, narrowing attainable paths to homeownership and highlighting the need for greater housing diversity.

• Commerce City is experiencing market stagnation. As affordability eroded and interest rates climbed, home sales slowed markedly, with median time on market increasing nearly tenfold and supply more than doubling compared to 2022.

• Interest rates impact home purchasing power. A median-priced home in July 2025 carried an estimated $2,692 monthly mortgage payment at 7%, nearly $1,000 more than at 3% in 2020, slowing demand and limiting access for moderate-income households. The median mortgaged homeowner spent about $2,390 on monthly housing costs in 2023, but new buyers face payments exceeding this under current rates (over 6% as of November 2025), widening generational divides.

• Rental housing is becoming increasingly unaffordable. Typical asking rents now exceed $2,800 per month, requiring roughly $120,000 in income—more than twice the median renter income of $55,000—driven largely by single-family rental dominance. Even smaller units are unaffordable for many renters, with median one-bedroom rent ($1,853) requiring $74,000 annually and two-bedroom rent ($2,372) requiring $95,000, highlighting the need for increased supply.

• Renter incomes are not keeping pace with rising rent prices. Median rent has risen at six times the rate of median renter income in recent years, far outpacing statewide trends and raising risks of cost burden, overcrowding, and displacement.

• Affordable housing in Commerce City is vanishing. Current rental listings show no units affordable to households earning $30,000, fewer than 1% at $50,000, and just 12% at $75,000, illustrating the depth of the affordability crisis.

• Renters in Commerce City are experiencing financial distress. In 2023, 57% of renter households were cost burdened, including one-third spending at least half their income on housing, straining budgets and increasing instability and displacement risks.

• Homeowners in Commerce City are under financial strain. Despite reductions over time, 27% of mortgaged homeowners in 2023 spent at least 30% of income on monthly costs, leaving many exposed to financial strain amid rising costs and interest rates.

• More housing types are needed to address overcrowding. Overcrowding occurs at more than twice the statewide rate, reflecting larger household sizes and a mismatch between available housing and the needs of multigenerational and family households.

• Homelessness is a regional issue affecting Commerce City. Homelessness has increased across the Denver Metro region, with the 2024 PIT (point-in-time) count recording 14,281 individuals (unsheltered numbers more than doubling since 2018), though PIT’s limitations mean overall housing instability is likely far higher.

• There is a geographic divide to housing in Commerce City. The findings reinforce Commerce City's "tale of two cities" dynamic, contrasting newer, higher-income northern neighborhoods with legacy southern areas facing ongoing affordability and reinvestment challenges.

• Significant portion of housing in Core Commerce City is found to be substandard. A meaningful share of households report substandard conditions like incomplete kitchens, inadequate plumbing (at twice the countywide rate), or non-standard fuel reliance, signaling gaps in housing quality and the need for continued investment.

• Core Commerce City is most at risk of displacement. Displacement risk is most pronounced in core neighborhoods where older housing, lower incomes, and higher rent burdens intersect with elevated overcrowding, single-parent households, and limited English proficiency.

• Commerce City has a Job-Housing imbalance. While the overall jobs-to-housing ratio improved to 1.5 total jobs per unit in 2023, the ratio worsened for lower earners to 7.7 jobs paying under $35,000 per affordable unit, indicating intensifying competition and longer commutes for essential workers.

• Affordable housing is the largest share of the City’s housing shortfall. Commerce City has an estimated housing shortfall of 6,255 units (4,758 ownership and 1,497 rentals), with significant gaps for lower-income households that will intensify cost burdens and overcrowding without additional supply.

• Affordable housing is needed most to meet future demand. Expanding affordable housing production is critical to mitigating displacement risk and meeting the city's projected     cumulative need of 8,113 units by 2033.

• Commerce City needs more housing for those with accessibility challenges. Approximately 2,468 units (about 11% of total stock) should meet accessibility or visitability standards to support residents with mobility limitations and an aging population.

• More housing with support services is needed. An estimated 65 supportive housing units (roughly 0.3% of stock) are needed to ensure long-term stability for the city's most vulnerable populations.

• A lack of rental options has created habitability concerns. Residents, particularly those vulnerable to displacement, expressed frustration with housing quality and rising costs, describing high rents for units with mold, pests, and broken appliances that underscore concerns about habitability and landlord accountability.

• There is demand for a more diverse housing stock. Community input revealed strong demand for affordable, workforce, senior, and family-oriented housing, with participants emphasizing diverse, smaller-scale options like ADUs, duplexes, and cottage courts to support multigenerational households within existing neighborhoods.

• Lower income renters are under more financial strain. Survey responses, which were disproportionately composed of lower-income renters, showed high rates of cost burden and difficulty meeting basic expenses, illustrating how affordability challenges directly shape residents' daily lives.

• Commerce City is experiencing common barriers to development. Stakeholders identified high land and construction costs, restrictive zoning, and limited local incentives as key barriers, pointing to the need for zoning modernization, expanded financing tools, and stronger preservation initiatives.

• A lack of housing options is creating economic risk. Local employers and Economic Development staff highlighted housing affordability as a workforce challenge, noting that high costs and long commutes hinder recruitment and retention and that maintaining the city's competitive advantage requires increasing housing diversity and affordable homeownership opportunities.

• Commerce City should align incentives with desired outcomes. Encourage mixed-income development through targeted incentives like sliding-scale height bonuses and flexible parking reductions that improve project viability and enable affordable unit integration.

• Align resources to increase housing options and affordability. Expand and preserve affordable, workforce, and senior housing by aligning local financial tools with state and federal programs to leverage broader resources and sustain long-term affordability across income levels.

• Seek balance in use of housing financing tools. Refine financing mechanisms like linkage fees and tax increment financing to balance promoting affordability while maintaining an attractive environment for private investment.

• Support new development with streamlined processes. Accelerate affordable housing delivery by streamlining permitting and review procedures and providing selective fee relief to reduce time, costs, and improve financial feasibility for qualifying projects.

• Commerce City should evaluate new code for ability to meet housing goals. Following the 2025 Land Development Code update that allows smaller lots and broader housing types, the City should evaluate its effectiveness and identify opportunities for further refinement to better advance diverse and attainable housing.

• Public land strategy should be considered for development. Use publicly owned land as a catalyst for equitable growth through strategic donations, discounted sales, or long-term leases that reduce development costs and guide affordable projects to transit-accessible locations.

• Commerce City can support collaborative relationships with community partners. Foster partnerships with employers, nonprofit housing organizations, and community land trusts to diversify approaches to affordable housing production and preservation while extending local resource reach.

• Stronger housing stock preservation should be considered. Preserve and improve existing housing stock by expanding rehabilitation funding, enforcing stronger property maintenance standards, and holding landlords accountable to protect residents from displacement and extend naturally affordable housing.

• Renter protections could be more robust. Promote housing stability through strengthened tenant protections, enhanced anti-retaliation measures, proactive education, and multilingual outreach to ensure renters understand their rights and can access needed resources.

A Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) is a study that helps a community understand what kinds of housing, and how much housing, are needed to meet the community’s needs. It looks at things like:

• Who lives in the area (families, seniors, workers, etc.)
  
  
• What types of housing already exist (apartments, single-family homes, etc.)
  
  
• How much housing costs, and whether people can afford it
  
  
• Where there are gaps, such as not enough affordable housing, too few rentals, etc.

The goal is to use this information to plan for the future, so local governments, developers, and nonprofits can make better decisions about building and improving housing options.

The project began January 1, 2025, and the Housing Needs Assessment is anticipated to be completed by the end of 2025.

As part of this process, the city is engaging with the community to collect continuous and constructive input throughout the planning process. The goal is to collect feedback regarding current and future housing needs, which helps to inform the development of the Housing Needs Assessment, as well as keeping the public up to date throughout.

We encourage all community members to provide input to help guide the city’s future housing conversations. Residents can share their thoughts through the Resident Survey (open from April 2025 until late July 2025) and through the Open Houses in July 2025.

Under SB24-174, municipalities in Colorado with more than 1,000 residents (who are not experiencing >1% negative population growth) must conduct and publish a local Housing Needs Assessment by December 31, 2026, and at least every 6 years thereafter. These assessments are typically used to guide housing policy and inform Housing Action Plans, which outline a strategy for a municipality to address housing challenges, such as affordability, availability, and diversity of housing options.